The property market is nearing the end of the crazy house prices plunge a foregone conclusion – the -tsumori chisato

The property market is nearing the end of the crazy house prices plunge a foregone conclusion? – Sohu finance October 8, 2016, the 8th day of the ninth month of the Chinese lunar calendar, the dew. The almanac says: "September Festival, dew condensation will also cold." This season, most of China’s temperature will continue to decline. In the Past National Day holiday, Beijing, Suzhou, Zhengzhou, Wuxi, Hefei, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Xiamen and other cities to restart the restriction, limit the loan. High temperature retreat property market, and finally to cool down? Holiday splash a basin of water: "immediate"? Beijing, a real estate agency in the northern ring of a popular area, brokers Sun Qiang said, "Beijing eight" has poured a cold water to the market. Sun Qiang and his colleagues didn’t have a day off during the mid autumn small holiday. Throughout September, more and more customers, buy and sell, at most a day with 10 dial customers look at the house, 11 o’clock every night to work. "Three days before the National Day holiday, only two customers have been dialed."." The traditional "golden nine silver ten" property market, seven days of false loss to three days of small holiday has become a foregone conclusion. Sun Qiang provides a set of one bedroom near the housing price record, 3 million 500 thousand yuan from the end of August to September 20th, the rapid price increases to 4 million yuan. On October 4th and 6, the price has been reduced by 50 thousand yuan. At the end of September before the introduction of the policy of many owners are targeting time continue to increase, these days there has been a significant decline in prices intention. Since September 30th to October 7th, Beijing, Tianjin, Suzhou, Zhengzhou, Chengdu, Ji’nan,, Wuxi, Hefei, Wuhan, Nanjing, Huizhou, Nanning, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Xiamen, Dongguan, Zhuhai, Fuzhou, and other places to restart the purchase limit loan. Reporters combed found that during the national day, the introduction of the property market regulation and control policy content, although there are similarities and differences, but the core content is the purchase limit credit: – restriction. In the current round of the introduction of new regulation of more than ten cities, basically involving the restart or expand the purchase, of which Hefei and Nanjing restriction policy is more stringent, Suzhou involved in the largest administrative scope. Limited loan. Carding many regulatory policies, common policies for the promotion of two suites down payment to 40% or 50%. Among them, Suzhou greater efforts, not only third sets of prohibited loans, two suites down payment (loan is not settled) also increased to 80%; Beijing further expanded the scope of two suites identified. Located in Beijing city of Haidian District, such as garden is an improvement project, the main Huxing mostly in 200 square meters or more, unit price per square meter of about 80 thousand yuan. Most customers are first-time or two improved consumers. "Beijing eight" after the introduction of customers significantly reduced." Sales staff said. Hangzhou housing security and Real Estate Management Bureau statistics show that during the long holiday, Hangzhou City second-hand housing signed a total of 942 sets. Although the transaction is hot, but by the introduction of market regulation measures intensive impact, "grab housing" foreign investors significantly reduced. "I love my family" hotline customer advisory volume increased significantly. Affected by credit tightening, it is estimated that 2-3 of the clients will be able to cancel or delay the relocation plan. In Tianjin, from the "I love my family" during the national day, the actual transaction volume of second-hand housing, compared with the same period in September decreased by 50%. Customers, non Tianjin clients.

楼市疯狂即将结束 房价猛跌成定局?-搜狐财经  2016年10月8日,农历九月初八,寒露。历书说:“九月节,露气寒冷,将凝结也。”这一时节,我国大部分地区气温将持续下降。刚过去的国庆节长假期间,北京、苏州、郑州、无锡、合肥、南京、广州、深圳、厦门等城市重启限购限贷。高温不退的楼市,终于要降温了吗?   长假泼一盆水:“立竿见影”?   北京北五环一热门区域的房地产中介机构门店里,经纪人孙强说,“京八条”已经给市场泼了一盆冷水。   孙强和同事中秋小长假期间一天都没有休息。整个9月,客户越来越多,有买有卖,最多一天带过10拨客户看房子,每天晚上11点才能下班。“国庆长假前三天只带过两拨客户。”传统的“金九银十”楼市,七天长假输给三天小假已成定局。   孙强提供的一套一居室近期调价记录显示,这套住房从8月底350万元到9月20日快速提价到400万元。10月4日、6日下调价格已累计5万元。9月底政策出台前很多业主都“瞄准”时机不断加价,这几天已经有了明显下调价格意向。   自9月30日至10月7日,北京、天津、苏州、郑州、成都、济南、无锡、合肥、武汉、南京、南宁、广州、深圳、佛山、厦门、东莞、珠海、福州、惠州等地重启限购限贷。   记者梳理发现,国庆期间各地出台的楼市调控政策内容虽有异同,但核心内容都是限购限贷:   ――限购。在本轮出台调控新政的十几座城市中,基本都涉及重启或扩大限购,其中合肥、南京限购政策比较严格,苏州涉及的行政范围最大。   ――限贷。梳理多地的调控政策,常见政策为提升二套房首付至四成或五成。其中,苏州力度较大,不但第三套禁贷,二套房首付(贷款未结清)也提升到了八成;北京则进一步扩大了二套房认定范围。   位于北京市海淀区的如园是一个改善型的项目,主力户型大多在200平方米以上,单价每平方米8万元左右。客户大多是首次或二次改善型消费者。“‘京八条’出台后,客户明显减少。”销售人员说。   杭州市住房保障与房产管理局统计数据显示,长假期间,杭州市区二手房共计签约942套。虽然成交火热,但受楼市调控措施密集出台影响,“抢房”的外地投资客明显减少。   “我爱我家”热线客户咨询量明显增多。受信贷收紧影响,预计将有2-3成客户有可能取消或延缓换房计划。   在天津,从“我爱我家”国庆期间二手住宅实际交易量来看,与9月同期相比减少50%。客户方面,非津籍客户受限购影响较大,需求量预计比上月将减少20%-30%。   业主方面,虽然主动降价的现象尚未出现,但涨价的冲动已经得到一定抑制,业主挂牌报价更加理性。   在苏州,国庆期间二手住宅交易量明显减少,咨询了解新政策的客户多,但出手的大幅减少,市场降温态势明显。   业内人士指出,通过限购,可以抑制部分城市非理性购房群体,特别是部分跨区域投资性购房者以及多套房置业者;通过限贷,可以制约部分非刚需群体资金来源。与此同时,多数城市开始积极扩大土地供应,在一定程度上稳定市场预期。   卖家、中介、买主:谁在观望?   “假期楼市冷清也有可能是受出游影响。下一步销售策略和价格是否会调整,还不好说,要看市场反应。购房者在观望,我们也在观望。”北京丰台区一个住房项目的销售人员张先生介绍。   记者走访北京朝阳、东城、丰台多家中介门店,与新政策出台前门庭若市相比,这些中介机构虽然没有休息,但冷清不少。   作为“新杭州人”,在杭州武林商圈一家股份制商业银行工作的小冯,随着这轮楼市暴涨与调控,心情犹如坐过山车。参加工作两年来,小冯陆陆续续看过不少房子,还在犹豫是否入手时,却发现杭州房价已经站在山岗上。杭州出台楼市调控措施后,小冯越发勤快地看房子,打算在楼市价格适当回调时出手。   国庆期间,通过“我爱我家”达成的新增合同签订量、新增客源量、新增房源量、新增带看量等数据全线回落,市场明显降温。   杭州透明售房研究院院长方张接认为,国庆黄金周并非工作日,成交数字参考意义受到限制。杭州此前已经密集出台相关调控措施,一定程度上限制了投资性需求,但力度仍然偏宽松,市场对后期政策加码有预期。 预计杭州楼市十月成交将受到较大影响,呈现“量缩价稳”态势。“多种因素叠加,购房者观望情绪开始变浓。”浙江大学房地产研究中心主任贾生华教授表示,在房地产市场面临风险的形势下,进一步出台抑制性调控政策很有必要。   总体来看,本轮政策有望取得积极效果,防止市场非理性发展。但各城市在出台政策时,也应考虑到刚需群体的合理置业需求,进行针对性区分,维护市场理性运行,避免出现大的波动。   从一线往四线张望:“拐点”到了吗?   “历时18个月,一路飘红的一线楼市即将迎来拐点。”伟业“我爱我家”集团副总裁胡景晖说,据伟业“我爱我家”市场研究院统计,北京区域,10月1日-6日,新建商品住宅(不含保障房)网签量仅为204套,与9月同期相比大跌73.7%,与去年同期相比下跌42.2%。10月1日-6日,二手住宅网签量仅为152套,与9月同期相比大跌96.5%。   “预计后续还将有更多城市升级楼市调控政策,楼市政策拐点已经出现。”中原地产首席分析师张大伟认为,这一轮限购政策,对外地户籍的购房资格和信贷资格开始收紧,意味着调控从过去的一线蔓延到二线城市。预计楼市很可能从北京等一线城市开始降温。   业内分析认为,从各地集中出台的调控政策看,主要以二线城市为主,而且基本都是前期房价涨幅较高的城市。从出台政策的城市特点看,可以判断,未来还将有多个城市加入调控行列。   调控政策密集发力,房价会降吗?易居中国研究院智库中心研究总监严跃进认为,中国楼市政策的拐点已在今年第四季度正式开启,而市场拐点会在明年,2017年第二季度部分城市或有“量价齐跌”的现象出现。但必须认识到,此类市场拐点是周期性的,而非实质性下跌。   一些业内人士认为,楼市后市成交量或将回落。“四季度成交下滑是大概率事件,今年在成色十足的‘金九’之后,‘银十’的成交量会明显下滑。”一些业内人士预计,通过政策调控,房价过快上涨的势头将得到遏制。“预料房价将逐步回落,努力回归到合理区间。”张大伟说。   业内分析指出,预期土地市场热度有所下降。受限购政策的影响,开发商将重新评估市场,改变以往对市场的乐观预期,拿地回归理性,短期内将对土地市场起到降温作用。   张大伟认为,横向比较,深圳限购政策最猛。不过从政策内容看,有的城市可以说是“蜻蜓点水”。   厦门大学管理学教授戴亦一认为,这次调控体现压一线、稳二线、活三线的思路,属于有保有压,和几年前的调控相比颇为不同。多座城市如此“轻重有序”的楼市调控节奏,体现了“因城施策”。既给不同城市间观察“限购疗效”留下“观察窗口”,又给一些城市留下继续从严调控的施展空间。   不过一些分析人士认为,一些城市尤其三四线城市仍然面临去库存压力。   福建沙县是中国著名的小吃之乡。记者近日在沙县县城看到,在城区新区,数十个楼盘正在促销,映入眼帘的是各种地产广告。即使一些售出的房子,居住率也并不高。为了去库存,沙县从2014年就停止住宅用地的供应,主要是为去库存。今年沙县继续出台化解房地产库存促进市场稳定健康发展的实施意见,要求从7月开始,购房可领补贴。   业内人士认为,当前房地产市场去库存大体格局为一线城市“涨价微库存”,二线核心城市“涨价降库存”,三四线城市“平价高库存”。作为“沉默的大多数”,三四线城市库存形势依然严峻。北京、深圳、南京、杭州、苏州等新一轮限购、限贷等政策能否执行到位,将在很大程度上决定房地产市场的结构性矛盾能不能有效化解。相关的主题文章: