Bocom China’s CPI is not as good as expected and does not constitute a constraint on monetary policy-9c8921

Bocom: China CPI less than expected monetary policy or does not constitute a constraint [event] China’s CPI in January, 1.8%, expected 1.9%, the previous value of 1.6%; China’s January PPI -5.3%, -5.9%, expected -5.2%. [Schroder] bank view bank Schroder analysis, mainly because the early rise in inflation in food prices rose less than before the Spring Festival, but the forecast of 1.9%, the main reason is the General Bureau of statistics five years a major weight, this time down the price of food accounted for. The weight ratio of food was down from 0.34 in October 2015 to 0.30 in January this year; the proportion of non food weighting increased from 0.66 in October 2015 to 0.70 in January of this year. From the structure of food category, compared with the previous increase of tobacco and wine, the weight decline mainly comes from meat and its products. Overall, the strengthening of food prices has become an important factor to support the rise of CPI. Spring Festival factors stimulate vegetable consumption demand and service demand, cold wave, rain and snow weather reduced vegetable supply, vegetable prices rose significantly, overall consistent with seasonal performance. In addition, PPI narrowed slightly. PPI continued negative growth for 47 months, a decline of 0.5%, mainly black and non-ferrous metals processing prices narrowed. BOCOM Schroder expected, the Spring Festival consumption or will continue to drive CPI in February, taking into account the bulk price Yindie bottomed and the impact of the economic downturn, CPI short-term fluctuations of annual or limited, CPI and PPI increase or maintain 2016 reached 1.7% and -3.8% judgment, constraints on monetary policy or not. Enter Sina Financial shares] discussion

交银:中国CPI不及预期对货币政策或不构成制约   【事件】中国1月CPI同比1.8%,预期1.9%,前值1.6%;中国1月PPI同比-5.3%,预期-5.2%,前值-5.9%。   【交银施罗德观点】   交银施罗德分析,通胀上行主要因为春节前期食品价格的上涨,但是涨幅低于之前预测的1.9%,主要原因是统计局一般五年一大调权重,这一次下调了食品价格的占比。食品的权重占比由2015年10月的0.34下调至今年1月的0.30;非食品的权重占比由2015年10月的0.66上调至今年1月的0.70。从食品类目的结构来看,相比以往增加了烟酒,权重下降主要来自肉类及其制品。   整体来看,食品价格的走强成为支撑CPI走高的重要因素。春节因素刺激蔬菜消费需求和服务需求,寒潮雨雪天气缩减蔬菜供应,蔬菜价格上涨明显,整体符合季节性表现。   此外,PPI环比跌幅略缩窄。PPI连续47个月负增长,环比下降0.5%,主要是黑色和有色金属加工价格跌幅缩窄。   交银施罗德预计,春节消费或将继续带动2月CPI,考虑到大宗价格阴跌筑底和经济下行影响, CPI短期波动对全年影响或有限,维持2016年CPI和PPI涨幅或分别达到1.7%和-3.8%的判断,对货币政策或不构成制约。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: